For years, China has used significant pressure to force Taiwan to accept China’s One China vision, which essentially gives China complete control of Taiwan, a democratic nation off the coast of China. In fact, China has persuaded many diplomatic partners to not recognize Taiwan at all. As a result, only 12 countries officially recognize the island: Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See, Marshall Islands, Palau, Paraguay, St. Lucia, St. Kitts and Nevis, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Eswatini and Tuvalu.

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The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community predicts that “Beijing will continue to apply military and economic pressure as well as public messaging and influence activities while promoting long-term cross-Strait economic and social integration to induce Taiwan to move toward unification. Taiwan is a significant potential flashpoint for confrontation between the PRC (People's Republic of China) and the United States as Beijing claims that the United States is using Taiwan to undermine China’s rise. Beijing will use even stronger measures to push back against perceived increases in U.S. support to Taiwan.”

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Although the 1979 U.S.-P.R.C. Joint Communique officially changed U.S. diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing – meaning the United States recognizes the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and considers Taiwan a part of China – the United States has always had a great relationship with Taiwan.

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Further, the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 obligates the United States to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability, demands peaceful resolutions between Beijing and Taipei, and forbids unilateral changes to the status quo by either side. 

Taiwan is one of our most trusted Pacific alliances, and the island is a bright spot for democracy around the world. Regardless of how China reacts to the relationship, the United States must be committed to Taiwan and protect the island with every tool at our disposal.

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We must develop a strategy now, because Chinese president Xi Jinping will most definitely force a confrontation over Taiwan eventually. In many ways, it’s already started. China’s increasingly complex military exercises in the waters around Taiwan now include Chinese forces encircling Taiwan and simulating blockades. China is also increasing its incursions into Taiwan’s airspace.

 

We cannot let this happen. If China seizes Taiwan, it will destabilize the entire first island chain, a perimeter of American allies that stretch from Japan to Southeast Asia. The global economic crisis that it will ignite will make COVID’s look like child’s play. And remember, if China invades Taiwan, Xi Jinping won’t stop there. From there, he will aim to reshape the entire Indo-Pacific regional order and undermine the rules-based global economy – by any means necessary.