The Philippines supposedly transitioned from authoritarian rule in 1986, but the shift remains tenuous. Freedom House – a U.S. government-funded nonprofit organization that conducts research and advocacy on democracy, political freedom, and human rights – classifies the Philippines as “partly free,” saying “the rule of law and application of justice are haphazard and heavily favor political and economic elites.”

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Until former President Rodrigo Duterte left office, human rights abuses were abhorrent. The United Nations released a damning report in June 2020 that documented tens of thousands of killings during Duterte’s “war on drugs.” The report said that police acted with “near impunity” during the campaign against illegal drugs, which led to a significant suppression of dissent, arbitrary arrests, and extrajudicial killings. 

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Human Rights Watch – a global non-governmental organization, that conducts research and advocacy on human rights – reported that thousands of people, including children, were killed by “death squads” during Duterte’s “war.” To fan the flames, Duterte himself repeatedly called for violence, at one point saying, “If you know of any addicts, go ahead and kill them yourself as getting their parents to do it would be too painful.”

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Meanwhile, the COVID-19 crisis provided Duterte a perfect excuse to significantly expand his powers and severely further curtail the rights and freedoms of Filipinos. To that end, President Duterte introduced, and his Duterte-friendly legislature passed, an “anti-terrorism” law that eliminated the need for legal warrants, increased surveillance on citizens, and significantly increased the power of government security forces.

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Three years after Duterte left office, in March 2025, the Philippine authorities arrested him, acting on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. Although the new president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., promised to end brutality and violence when he took office in 2022, he has seemingly kept many of the violent policies of Rodrigo Duterte.

 

One of the main things we need to watch regarding the Philippines is China’s aggressive, unlawful behavior in the South China Sea – where the People’s Liberation Army has built a $50 billion+ military fortress.​ Tensions continue to escalate quickly, and it’s becoming a more dangerous situation by the day. Hainan, often referred to as China’s Hawaii, now doubles as China’s launching pad into the South China Sea, complete with advanced military weapons and nuclear-armed submarines. Meanwhile, boats that China insists are just for “fishing” patrol the shores armed with machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, and high-velocity water cannons.

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In a case brought by the Philippines in 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague unanimously ruled that China had no sovereignty over the waters of the South China Sea and, therefore, was violating international law by militarizing artificial islands and occupying disputed reefs and shoals. Predictably, the Chinese rejected this ruling out of hand because Beijing ostensibly believes that roughly 90 percent of the South China Sea has belonged to them since “ancient times,” pointing to waters within a “nine-dash line” that, oddly enough, appears only on Chinese maps.

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The reason the response of the Philippines to China’s behavior in the South China Sea is significant to the United States is because we have a mutual-defense treaty that says we must “meet the common danger” in the event of an armed attack on a Philippine public vessel. This must be navigated carefully.