India
India is a very important strategic partner for the United States, and we need to nurture this relationship and strengthen our ties even more. Our bilateral relationship with India is a huge economic opportunity for America as India’s strong domestic market – with 1.4 billion people – continues to develop. Although, even before the pandemic, India was facing an economic slowdown and severe inflation – and still struggles with poverty – India’s economy is the 5th largest in the world, accounting for 9.7 percent of global GDP. India is also central to our Indo-Pacific security strategy. The fact that China has grown increasingly assertive and moved aggressively to expand its presence in the Indian Ocean has closely aligned the security interests of the U.S. and India, leading to stronger bilateral defense cooperation between our two countries.
At a two-plus-two dialogue on September 6, 2018, India and the United States signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), which allows India access to advanced U.S. communication technology as well as real-time communication between our militaries. At the following two-plus-two dialogue, the countries signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), which authorizes the sharing of sensitive geospatial data to help increase the accuracy of Indian drones and cruise missiles. This alliance gives the United States a way to navigate and balance China’s rise while providing India a way to further protect itself against Pakistan, its main rival, and better solidify its border position with China. This one is increasingly important for India’s security. In June 2020, tensions at the India-China border reached its highest level in over forty years. For weeks, President Xi Jinping of China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India had been sending troops to Galwan Valley, an area high in the Himalayas that was the site of a war between the two countries in 1962. That war ended in an uneasy truce whereby an ill-defined 2,100-mile-long Line of Actual Control was established. This was meant to ease hostilities but plenty of bad blood remained – which is a problem when both countries in the dispute have nuclear weapons. As a result, both sides started to aggressively build infrastructure to further stake their claims, which inflamed tensions more.
Recently, however, there seems to be a thaw in India-China relations. Modi has spoken positively about his country’s relationship with China and said he hoped the countries could forge stronger ties. China responded by saying “the two countries should be partners that contribute to each other's success.” China is India’s number one trade partner, and they cooperate multilaterally through BRICS and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Even when tensions were at their highest, the two militaries never stopped holding high-level talks.
That said, each side has close ties with the other’s main nemesis (India with the United States and China with Pakistan). China opposes India’s policy on Kashmir and its deepening ties with Taiwan. India doesn’t appreciate China’s hostile and taunting maritime behavior, and it consistently blocking their advancement in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and being a permanent member on the UN Security Council. But the relationship does seem to be going in a much better direction.
While the United States’ alliance with India is, on balance, positive, there is one issue that demands immediate attention, plus one escalating (unacceptable) dynamic within India that we need to watch carefully.
The first issue is Kashmir, a territory that both India and Pakistan claim and have already fought two wars over. Although both countries claim to have full rights over Kashmir, the area is globally recognized as “Indian-administered Kashmir” and “Pakistan-administered Kashmir.”
On August 5, 2019, Modi’s Hindu nationalist government revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution, a provision that granted autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir. Technically, it takes approval by the Jammu and Kashmir constituent assembly for Article 370 to be revoked – which is impossible because the assembly was dissolved in 1956. The United States’ response to this dangerous and volatile situation was embarrassing. Essentially, Donald Trump clumsily forced his way into the conflict between Delhi and Islamabad at a meeting with Prime Minister Imran Khan in July 2019.
After the meeting, Donald falsely claimed that Prime Minister Modi had specifically requested his involvement, which led to India’s Ministry of External Affairs releasing a Tweet – the only way Donald Trump would probably see it – that said, “We have seen @POTUS’s remarks to the press that he is ready to mediate, if requested by India & Pakistan, on Kashmir issue. No such request has been made by PM @narendramodi to U.S. President.” The tweet continued, “It has been India’s consistent position that all outstanding issues with Pakistan are discussed only bilaterally. Any engagement with Pakistan would require an end to cross border terrorism. The Shimla Agreement & the Lahore Declaration provide the basis to resolve all issues between India & Pakistan bilaterally.” This sure seemed like India’s way of saying butt out! That said, it’s in America’s best interest to encourage a resolution on Kashmir between India and Pakistan, as well as demand that the Muslim minority in both Kashmir and India is protected.
…which leads to the escalating (unacceptable) dynamic within India. In May 2019, Modi, the incumbent prime minister, and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a historic victory which solidified the Hindu nationalists’ place in the power structure of the country. Today, six years on, Modi’s approval rating among his people is 80 percent, by far the highest approval rating of any major leader in the world. His popularity – or what many would call “cult of personality” – makes what is happening in India even more concerning. Essentially, Modi is becoming more and more authoritarian by the day.
In 2023, in its annual report on global democracy, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) ranked India 108th among 179 countries, referring to India as an “electoral autocracy” instead of a democracy. V-Dem continued this characterization in its 2024 report, saying that “India, with 18 percent of the world’s population, accounts for about half of the population living in autocratizing countries.”
For one, he has severely cracked down on journalism and news organizations. In its 2023 World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders ranked India 161st among 180 countries, an 11-point drop from just one year before: “The violence against journalists, the politically partisan media and the concentration of media ownership all demonstrate that press freedom in India is in crisis” an assessment that continued in its 2024 report.
Most frightening, the calls for Muslim genocide are getting louder and more brazen. Although Modi’s treatment of the Muslim minority was comparatively innocuous during his first term, his second term has shaped up quite differently for the Muslim population. This is of particular concern in Kashmir. Immediately after Modi’s Hindu nationalist government revoked Article 370, seven million people were put in major limbo and tensions escalated quickly in an area that was already under severe distress. In addition to revoking Article 370, Modi sent in more troops to implement curfews, roadblocks and other restrictions; shut down Internet and cellular communications; throw out all visitors, including journalists; and arrested local politicians and pro-freedom activists. Pakistan’s then Prime Minister Khan began comparing Modi to Hitler.
Meanwhile, within India’s borders – where two hundred million Muslims live, making it by far the country’s largest minority group Muslims have experienced uneven justice by the police and the courts, been killed for alleged slights against Hinduism, and lost contested religious sites to Hindus, like the one at Ayodhya. Modi has also implemented a citizenship test that makes it easier for Hindus, but not Muslims, to become citizens and has pushed for a register of citizens, which would require those in India to provide evidence of their citizenship – even though he knows full well that many Muslims can’t produce the necessary paperwork. This was made far worse by the fact that, on a parallel path, Modi’s government ordered detainment camps be built for those in “violation” of the proposed order.
These actions are fraught with human rights violations. And there’s an additional consequence: As the Muslim minority feels more threatened and alienated, Islamist terrorist groups could use their vulnerability and fear to gain a stronger foothold in India. Under no circumstance can we allow that to happen.